A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for parts of the Mid-South until Wednesday 6 a.m.
Rain will begin later today and continue into tonight/tomorrow.
As it falls, cold air will be trying to overlap it from the north/northwest. (#TrackingTheFreezingLine)
Unfortunately, "ice" appears to be the primary component with this event - but there could be snow mixed in as well. (and it starts as rain, thus the "wintry mix").
MOST of the ice will occur north of the FOX13 viewing area, but I'm growing more concerned about the potential for a last-second cold air push to kick freezing temps our way.
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This will likely be a case where our northern counties (north of Memphis) will see the best chance for developing ice; areas near Memphis (thing left to right) will be on the edge; north Mississippi southward will likely (with current data) remain a bit too warm.
HOW HARD IS IT TO FORECAST PRECISELY WHAT PARTS OF THE SOUTH WILL SEE RAIN AND WHICH WILL SEE ICE?
Look at the first map.
It shows temperatures around 6 am on Wednesday morning near Memphis.
Take a moment to let that soak in: within a few miles of one another, we have some areas at 32° (or colder), and some areas at 33° (or warmer). Critical degrees that make the difference between a cold rain and ice.
The second close up shows a snapshot potential for 6am as well: blue/snow, green/rain, pink/freezing rain-sleet. All in the same washing machine.
The final (and largest) graphic shows another (different model) estimate of projected ice across the region. (This one doesn't push as far south as Memphis, but I wanted to give you the potential size and scope of how much ice could be falling tonight/tomorrow nearby. Could dramatically impact travel plans)
WHAT'S ALL THIS MEAN:
It means the FOX13 northernmost counties need to be on their toes tonight/tomorrow and need to stay dialed in for the latest updates on what's falling and what your local temps are. Roads could get ugly.
It means the Memphis (and nearby surrounding areas) have the potential for all THREE components of the dreaded "wintry mix": cold rain, ice, and some snow.
It means from (roughly) Memphis north, we need to be super-careful driving late tonight and early tomorrow,
And OF COURSE it means watch me at 5/6/9/10 tonight (whatever's convenient for you) for the latest updates on what's happening and what's next.
We've got you covered.
Team coverage - all day - from Severe Weather Center 13.
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